Impact of hot spots patrol treatment duration on gun violence and disorder: a randomized controlled trial

Abstract With widespread acceptance and adoption of hot spots policing, recent research aims to improve its efficiency and effectiveness. The current study applies an experimental approach to examine how duration of hot spots policing affects crime across periods of 2, 4, and 8 weeks. Disorder calls significantly declined in treatment spots relative to controls. Shots-fired calls and ShotSpotter alerts did not significantly differ. Testing the interaction between treatment and duration found no significant difference. Directed patrol effectiveness did not vary based upon implementation duration. No significant differences across the different durations may indicate that applying proactive patrols for shorter durations in hot spots suffering from specific crimes may improve the efficiency of Hotspot Policing—spending fewer resources without altering the crime impact. Additional studies are essential to build confidence in this conclusion. Notably, the direction of nonsignificant effects varied by crime type. Applying a deterrence theory lens against the trends suggests future research should assess differential treatment periods for hot spots plagued by different crime types.