What happens after policies end? Effects of policy termination and dismantling on target populations, organizations, policy mixes, and political behavior

Abstract What happens when a policy is no longer in effect? How do the partial or total rollback of government interventions, the elimination of policy instruments, or the reduction in the scope or intensity of public programs affect individuals, communities, and bureaucracies? These are relevant questions in both developed and developing nations facing the rollback of social benefits or the weakening of environmental protections for ideological reasons, the cancellation of services or reductions in coverage due to austerity, or the repeal of social programs and the dismantling of institutions by populist or semi-authoritarian governments. Recent scholarly research has explored the causes of policy dismantling and policy termination and the processes through which these changes occur. However, less attention has been devoted to the direct and indirect consequences of both partial dismantling and complete termination. In this article, we focus on those effects. We argue that analyzing policy dismantling or termination as a form of policy change requires accounting for the diverse manifestations of its impact: effects on target populations, outcomes within the bureaucracies that implemented the dismantled policy, reconfigurations of the broader policy mix, and shifts in political behavior. To illustrate how these effects can be observed and analyzed, we examine the termination of Mexico’s public health insurance mechanism, Seguro Popular, and the dismantling of the flagship cash transfer program, Prospera–Oportunidades.