11. Occupational stress and depression tendency of cross-border trade practitioners under the background of exchange rate fluctuation

Abstract Background The global economic instability has intensified exchange rate volatility (ERV), subjecting cross-border trade practitioners to heightened pressures in transaction costs, profit uncertainty, and order risks. Prolonged exposure to occupational stress (OS) stemming from ERV may elevate the risk of emotional exhaustion, coping failure, and depressive tendencies (DT). However, current research on the OS-DT relationship under ERV conditions remains limited, with insufficient systematic evidence regarding stress sources, psychological load variations, and underlying mechanisms. This study aims to investigate OS characteristics among cross-border trade practitioners in ERV contexts and analyze the predictive role of OS on DT along with its influence pathways. Methods To investigate the occupational stress (OS) characteristics of cross-border trade practitioners under ERV and analyze OS's predictive role in deal turnover (DT) along with its influence pathways, this study employed a multi-stage sampling method to recruit 486 participants, including foreign trade agents, cross-border sellers, supply chain coordinators, and financial settlement personnel. The measurement instruments comprised the Occupational Stress Scale (OSS), Depressive Tendency Assessment Scale (DTAS), and Work Uncertainty Perception Questionnaire (WUPQ). Participants completed the scales based on their work experiences over the past three months while recording ERV data for their primary transaction currency. Statistical analyses utilized multiple regression and structural equation modeling to examine both direct and indirect effects of OS on DT. Results In months with higher Exchange Rate Volatility (ERV), employees' Occupational Stress (OS) scores showed a significant increase, with average scores rising 28% compared to stable months (p=.004). DTAS scores increased by 34% during high-ERV periods relative to baseline levels, significantly higher than the 11% rise observed during stable ERV periods (p=.006). Regression analysis revealed a significant predictive effect of OS on DT (standardized regression coefficient = 0.51, p