Exploring geopolitics and innovation: the role of bilateral relationships in shaping research collaboration

Abstract As the global political environment is becoming increasingly tense, it is crucial to understand the relationship between geopolitics and scientific collaboration. This study examines how bilateral relationships between countries are associated with research collaboration and innovation outcomes. It combines patent data from the European Patent Office’s PATSTAT database with the GDELT Event Database to test three key hypotheses: (1) international research collaboration improves research outcomes, (2) better bilateral relationships lead to increased collaboration, and (3) bilateral relationship quality affects collaboration outcomes. Results strongly support the first two hypotheses but only partially support the third. The findings suggest that although geopolitical tensions may affect the quantity of international research partnerships, they do not significantly impact all aspects of quality of existing collaborations. This study suggests the need for balanced approaches that promote international scientific cooperation while addressing security concerns and contributes to understanding the complex interplay between geopolitics, innovation systems, and research collaboration.