From Conflict to Compromise: Experimental Evidence on Occupational Downgrading in Migration from Myanmar

Abstract This article examines how violent conflict shapes the willingness of potential migrants to accept lower-skilled work (occupational downgrading). It uses an innovative survey module administered to high-skilled youth in Myanmar to elicit migration decisions for skill-preserving and lower-skilled jobs and to quantify the wage-equivalent value that prospective migrants attach to maintaining skill-appropriate employment. Exposure to conflict reduces the compensating wage differential (the additional wage premium individuals typically demand to accept lower-skilled work), indicating greater amenability to occupational downgrading. The study exploits the sudden announcement of military conscription during the survey as a plausibly exogenous shock to the amenity value of staying, as well as variation in exposure to violent conflict. The results indicate that heightened security concerns increase individuals’ willingness to migrate, even at the cost of skill-appropriate job matching. Effects are pronounced for disadvantaged groups, including women, ethnic minorities, and those with weaker migration networks, suggesting that conflict may worsen labor market outcomes and widen gaps in the gains from migration.