The Importance of Being Early? Anticipatory Cash Transfers for Flood-Affected Households

Abstract This study evaluates the effect of a cash transfer on households forecast to experience extreme flooding in Bangladesh five days before the flood peak based on hydrological modeling. Households receiving this “anticipatory” transfer had improved welfare during and three months after the flooding and reduced asset loss. Early cash increased the choice set of actions available to households, thereby altering the flood impacts at a critical time juncture. Benefits accrue in the months before a conventional humanitarian response, highlighting the gains from acting early.