Taking Stock of Africa’s Economic Transformation: Rethinking Sources of Productivity Growth

Abstract This paper draws on newly available data to examine the sources of labor productivity growth in Africa and to identify key emerging patterns. We show that while recent structural change in Africa has been growth-enhancing, overall labor productivity growth remains modest. Manufacturing—traditionally a cornerstone of structural transformation—has played a limited role since the 1990s. Instead, services, especially wholesale and retail trade, have been the main drivers. These trends are evident not only in value added and employment data but also in trade patterns, where services increasingly contribute to export growth. We argue that Africa’s modest productivity growth reflects deeper structural constraints, including limited physical and social infrastructure. The former category includes electricity access and roads; but we also argue that productivity growth is constrained by extreme poverty, poor health, and inadequate education. Against this backdrop, we argue for an African-led development strategy that recognizes both traditional and overlooked sources of productivity growth while addressing foundational barriers to transformation.