Belarus and Russia’s War in Ukraine

Abstract This chapter examines Belarus’s evolving policies under Lukashenka, focusing on its shifting ties with the EU and growing dependence on Russia. Lukashenka alternated between cooperation and obstruction with the EU but turned to Russia after the 2020 protests and the 2021 Ryanair incident isolated Belarus internationally. He amended the Constitution in 2022 to extend his power, modeling it after Russia’s and excluding the opposition. The regime intensified the use of Second World War memory in education and law to build a pro-government identity aligned with Russian narratives and suppress dissent. Finally, the chapter affirms that Belarus’s sovereignty remains compromised, and its democratic future depends on the Russia-Ukraine war’s outcome and whether domestic and exiled opposition can unite to challenge Lukashenka’s rule.