Wheat Diseases and Pests in Pakistan: A Nationwide Assessment

Wheat production in Pakistan faces persistent threats from diseases and pests. However, limited geographic information exists on local risks, economic impacts, and management practices. We used expert knowledge elicitation to provide the first integrated assessment of wheat health in Pakistan. Experts mapped yield losses for major diseases and pests at the district level. We analyzed networks of seed and grain exchange and stakeholder interactions. Analysis of wheat cropland connectivity identified locations that are likely to play important epidemiological roles. Cumulative yield losses estimated by experts ranged from 4% to 16%, with hotspots in central Punjab and northern Sindh. Stripe rust, leaf rust, and aphids remained top threats, with increasingly favorable climates and pathogen population structure identified as likely major determinants of yield losses. Experts indicated that national networks included informal exchange of wheat seed and grain, highlighting key pathways for potential spread of seedborne pathogens. In stakeholder networks characterized by experts, farmer associations and seed dealers were strategic points for information sharing and seed health monitoring. Cropland connectivity analysis identified highly connected wheat areas along the Indus River, overlapping with national disease hotspots and facilitating pathogen proliferation. Pakistan has a moderate vulnerability to wheat blast introduction, yet climate change and informal seed movement could increase this potential. These findings provide farmer associations, researchers, and policymakers with actionable control points to enhance wheat health systems in Pakistan. This study establishes a rapid information baseline to support geographically targeted surveillance, spatial disease-resistance deployment, coordinated seed system interventions, and epidemic preparedness planning.