Projected Shortages in the Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Workforce in the United States

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have highlighted emerging deficiencies in the surgical workforce. This study analyzed plastic and reconstructive surgery workforce adequacy in the United States (US). METHODS: This was a cross-sectional analysis of US-based plastic and reconstructive surgeons leveraging data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model. Demand and supply were defined as the projected number of full-time equivalent physicians needed and working in plastic and reconstructive surgery, respectively. Demand was modeled under status quo and improved access scenarios. Adequacy was defined as the ratio of supply and demand. Linear regression was used to analyze trends from 2024 to 2037. RESULTS: The supply of plastic and reconstructive surgeons was projected to decrease from 10,310 to 8,540 over the study period (17.2% decrease, P