Targeted cuts to Ryan White programs could raise HIV incidence by 8–17% in 30 US states and the District of Columbia

AIDS 2026

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Authors: Andrew Zalesak, Melissa Schnure, Ryan E. Forster, Joyce L. Jones, Catherine R. Lesko, David Scott Batey, Keri N. Althoff, Kelly A. Gebo, David W. Dowdy, Maunank R. Shah, Parastu Kasaie, Anthony T. Fojo
DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000004425
Cited by: 1
References: 2

Abstract

Using an HIV transmission model in 30 states and Washington DC, we simulated ending Ryan White services from Parts C and D and the Ending the HIV Epidemic and Minority AIDS initiatives in February 2026. We projected 23 883 additional infections by 2030 (95% credible interval 2812-53 813) - a 17.6% (2-39.5%) excess. A 'conservative' estimate of suppression losses projected 8.1% (4.4-12.3%) more infections. Ryan White services are critical to preventing US HIV transmission.

Fields of Study & Subjects

HIV/AIDS Research and Interventions HIV Drug Use Sexual Risk Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health

Publication details

Journal / source
AIDS
Publisher
Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)
Volume
40
Issue
4
Pages
536–538
Publication date
25 February 2026
Language
EN