Minimal dark matter: Generalized framework and direct-detection sensitivity

Minimal electroweak dark matter models are compelling due to their simplicity, though calculations of their freeze-out abundance are complicated by nonperturbative effects due to Sommerfeld enhancement and bound-state formation. It has been shown that all individual multiplet scenarios beyond the doublet lead to direct-detection signals above the neutrino floor and thus within the reach of next-generation experiments. If no signals are found, would minimal dark matter be excluded? Yes for the simplest models, but it has been unknown for the important extension of two multiplets coupled by Higgs interactions (Higgs-coupled minimal dark matter). We present a generalized framework for calculating nonperturbative effects for such models that also covers the case of individual multiplets. In this framework, we calculate nonperturbative effects on freeze-out as well as the prospects for direct detection, correcting shortcomings and omissions in the literature. Importantly, for the mixed Majorana (odd) and Dirac (even) multiplet combination 3 M 2 D (and marginally the 5 M 4 D ), we find that the predicted direct-detection signals can extend below the neutrino floor.