Survival prediction from neural parametrization of diffusive processes

Read full text
Authors: Alessio Cristofoletto, Cesare Rollo, Giovanni Birolo, Piero Fariselli
Cited by: 0
References: 19

Abstract

We introduce DeepFHT, a survival-analysis framework that couples deep neural networks with first hitting time (FHT) distributions from stochastic process theory. Time to event is represented as the first passage of a latent diffusion process to an absorbing boundary. A neural network maps input variables to physically meaningful parameters including initial condition, drift, and diffusion, within a chosen FHT process such as Brownian motion, both with drift and driftless. This yields closed-form survival and hazard functions and captures time-varying risk without assuming proportional hazards. We compare DeepFHT with Cox regression and DeepHit using synthetic and real-world datasets. The method achieves predictive accuracy on par with state-of-the-art approaches, while maintaining a physics-based interpretable parametrization that elucidates the relation between input features and risk. This combination of stochastic process theory and deep learning provides a principled avenue for modeling survival phenomena in complex systems.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Neural Networks and Applications

Publication details

Journal / source
Physical review. E
Publisher
American Physical Society (APS)
Volume
113
Issue
5
Pages
055303–055303
Publication date
14 April 2026
Language
EN