Dynamic simulation of carbon emission reduction benefits in prefabricated building supply chain: a cluster perspective

Purpose The cluster-oriented development of prefabricated buildings (PBs) has become a key driver of the low-carbon economic transition in China's construction industry. However, limited research has examined the long-term and dynamic evolution of the carbon emission reduction economic benefits (CEREB) for stakeholders within the prefabricated building supply chain (PBSC) under varying levels of industrial clustering. Design/methodology/approach This study integrates system dynamics modeling with industrial cluster theory systematically analyzes the long-term dynamic evolution of CEREB among stakeholders across the PBSC, and evaluates the comprehensive impacts of different clustering levels on carbon emissions and economic benefits within the PBSC. Findings Results show that with increasing clustering levels, the CEREB of prefabricated component factories exhibits an inverted U-shaped pattern, indicating that excessive clustering leads to higher carbon emissions; Transportation companies experience a linear increase in CEREB as clustering intensifies; Project contractors achieve the highest CEREB under medium clustering combined with low carbon subsidies, representing an approximately 11% improvement compared with high clustering scenarios. Based on these findings, the study proposes differentiated emission reduction strategies tailored to distinct clustering contexts. Originality/value This study provides a dynamic assessment of how clustering levels influence the CEREB of diverse stakeholders within the PBSC. The findings offer practical insights for PBSC participants and policymakers in formulating more targeted and effective low-carbon development strategies.