Disruptions, recovery and growth: a resilience model of the hospitality sector during crisis and war

Purpose This paper explores how hospitality enterprises in fragile and conflict-affected states sustain operations under systemic instability, offering insights into resilience strategies that may shape the future of tourism globally. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on the Chaos Theory and Adaptive Resilience Theory, the paper synthesizes nine qualitative interviews with hotel managers and operators across Yemen, Libya and Palestine. It positions fragile-state hospitality as a resilience laboratory, highlighting mechanisms such as humanitarian alliances, decentralized decision-making, psychosocial care and service improvisation. Findings The analysis demonstrates that in contexts where disruption is the baseline and “normal” is absent, resilience emerges not from restoration but from adaptive and transformative practices. Hotels embed themselves in local networks, devolve authority to frontline staff and innovate services under duress to maintain continuity and community trust. Originality/value By linking fragile-state experiences to the 2025–2035 horizon of climate shocks, cyber risks and geopolitical volatility, this paper contributes a futures-oriented framework. It reframes resilience in tourism as emergent adaptation under uncertainty, while also highlighting social dilemmas that inform stronger policy and regulatory responses.