Analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics of commercial real estate: evidence of Nottingham urban area

Purpose This paper investigates the spatial and temporal changes in commercial real estate in Nottingham by exploring the evolution of commercial properties over 13 years, 2010–2023. The aim was to evaluate the effect of the changes in location, spatial density distribution and economic activities on the commercial real estate (CRE) market and physical structure, as well as highlighting spatial and temporal trends in commercial property stock, distribution density expansion of commercial activities and rental value performances of properties across Nottingham. Design/methodology/approach This paper employed the application of geographic information systems and the kernel density estimator on the business rate dataset for commercial property stock in the United Kingdom. Findings Our findings reveal significant patterns of development and spatial expansion in the distribution density of commercial property in Nottingham, a shift of commercial property use and landscape from the city centre to other parts of the Nottingham urban area, a deliberate decongestion of commercial activities at the city core influenced by planning policy interventions, and a wider spread of commercial property with high to average rent. Research limitations/implications The study clarifies evolving commercial real estate dynamics, provides evidence for assessing planning effectiveness, and highlights the necessity of adaptive urban policies that respond to shifting spatial patterns and promote sustainable development. Originality/value The continual evolution of the CRE landscape demands ongoing research into market dynamics and emerging trends to support sustainable urban development. This paper is timely and relevant, offering critical insights into CRE performance and trends that can inform effective urban planning and policymaking.