Estimating Energy Consumption of Electric School Buses in Canadian Operating Conditions: A Validated and Scenario-Based Modeling Framework

This paper presents an enhanced computational framework for estimating the energy consumption of Electric School Buses (ESBs) operating under Canadian climatic and traffic conditions. Building on previous modeling efforts, the proposed approach integrates real-world traffic data, auxiliary load scenarios, and a physics-based energy consumption model to quantify the impact of operational variables on State-of-Charge (SOC) depletion. To address gaps in prior studies, the model incorporates a multi-scenario sensitivity analysis, a clear discussion of methodological assumptions, and a comparative validation using published telemetry-based energy benchmarks from similar electric bus platforms. A case study in Ottawa’s Altavista neighborhood demonstrates the applicability of the framework, evaluating the Lion C ESB across urban and extra-urban segments. Results show that auxiliary loads are a primary driver of consumption in low-speed conditions, increasing total SOC depletion by over 36% between mild and winter like scenarios. The study highlights implications for fleet operations, HVAC investment decisions, and route planning, providing actionable insights for school districts deploying electric fleets. Limitations and directions for future model extensions such as multi-bus routing and stochastic weather conditions are also explicitly discussed.