Enhancing Interpretability of Survival Models With High Predictive Performance: Integrating Cox Proportional Hazards With Machine Learning Methods

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Authors: Shijie Chen, Takashi Ishida
Cited by: 0

Abstract

Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have substantially improved the performance of survival prediction, yet this progress has been accompanied by a critical decline in model interpretability. In clinical decision-making, such loss of transparency undermines trust and practical applicability. To address this issue, we developed an interpretable high-performance survival prediction framework by integrating multiple ML survival models with the Cox proportional hazards model (Cox model) as the meta-learner.The proposed framework preserves the nonlinear modeling ability of ML while embedding interpretability directly within the model through the Cox meta-learner. This structure enables feature-level interpretation, single-factor analysis, and construction of clinically intuitive nomograms—capabilities that conventional ML models such as Gradient Boosted Survival Trees (GBST) cannot provide. The Cox meta-learner yields statistically grounded hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals, bridging rigorous survival analysis and explainable AI. Validation on the SEER database demonstrated that the proposed model achieved a C-index of 0.8313, comparable to GBST (0.8364), and superior to the classical Cox model (0.7958). Robustness was further confirmed through consistent generalization across multiple external datasets, particularly in small-sample datasets and a non-oncological heart failure dataset. These findings demonstrate that the proposed method restores interpretability while maintaining high predictive capacity, achieving clinically meaningful transparency and reliability across diverse survival prediction tasks.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Machine Learning in Healthcare Statistical Methods and Inference

Publication details

Journal / source
IEEE Access
Volume
14
Pages
25871–25889
Publication date
1 January 2026
Language
EN