Modeling the Impacts of Wind Curtailment on Brazil’s Wind-Power Sector

This study models and analyzes the phenomenon of renewable energy curtailment in Brazil across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Four years of historical data on wind generation are examined. A Random Forest approach is employed to estimate curtailed energy and revenue loss functions for generation agents in each region. These metrics allow us to quantify both the temporal evolution of curtailment and its economic impact on the electricity sector, which, according to our results, surpassed USD 832.83 million by the end of 2025. Furthermore, using a financial model of an equivalent wind power constructed to represent the average technical and economic characteristics of utility scale onshore wind projects, we assess the ex post economic effects of renewable energy curtailment. The results indicate that the Brazilian wind sector has an estimated financial tolerability threshold of around 15% percent curtailment, a level that is likely to be significantly exceeded in 2026.