Halton-Sequence Probabilistic Model With Four-Stage Settlement for Enhanced Renewable Energy Utilization in Green Market Operations

India’s Ministry of Power introduced the Green Day-Ahead Market (G-DAM) to promote renewable energy integration within the existing Day-Ahead Market (DAM), jointly forming an integrated day-ahead market (I-DAM). The prevailing two-stage clearing framework prioritizes renewable bids but offers limited flexibility in the market settlement. This work enhances the I-DAM through a four-stage market design that explicitly prioritizes intra-regional over inter-regional transactions to alleviate congestion and improve locational efficiency, together with a Halton-sequence-based probabilistic load flow (PLF) model for an improved stochastic representation of renewable generation. A computational complexity analysis under different operating conditions demonstrates that the proposed four-stage clearing framework maintains a scalable computational performance with an acceptable additional computational effort. The proposed framework was implemented on the IEEE 14-bus system with (45—75%) renewable penetration and benchmarked against existing two-stage and multiple probabilistic models. The performance of the Halton-sequence-based PLF was compared with those of the Sobol and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) methods, with the results indicating that quasi-Monte Carlo methods (QMC) consistently outperform LHS in terms of convergence and accuracy. Furthermore, an analysis across varying renewable energy penetration levels (45—75%) confirmed the consistent convergence and reliability of the uncertainty-aware four-stage framework under diverse generation mixes. Statistical evaluation using paired t-tests under peak, off-peak, morning, and night conditions confirmed the significant performance gains. Across different operating scenarios characterized by varying renewable participation levels, the proposed four-stage clearing mechanism demonstrates superior economic and operational performance compared to the conventional two-stage clearing mechanism. The framework facilitates greater renewable energy integration, reduces congestion impacts and network losses, and contributes to improved overall market efficiency, thereby validating the effectiveness of the proposed probabilistic I-DAM approach. These findings offer policy-level insights for advancing the I-DAM design in electricity markets with high renewable energy participation.