Multimodal Multiobjective Neural Architecture Search for Lightweight and Failure-Resilient Time Series Forecasting

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Authors: Yifan Li, Hong Zhao, Jian-Yu Li, Jing Liu
Cited by: 0
References: 41

Abstract

Time series forecasting (TSF) plays a pivotal role in decision-making and risk mitigation by predicting future values from historical observations. Despite significant improvements in forecasting accuracy, existing TSF models face two critical challenges: increasing computational complexity hinders deployment on resource-constrained platforms, and vulnerability to random failures compromises prediction stability. To address these issues, we propose M3NAS-TSF, a multimodal multiobjective neural architecture search framework that automates the design of lightweight and failure-resilient TSF models. Specifically, to address computational complexity, we introduce a modular time series super-net that defines a flexible and compact search space, enabling the discovery of architectures with reduced model size. To enhance failure resilience, we develop a multimodal multiobjective neural architecture search algorithm that promotes architectural diversity through an architecture-aware niching strategy and an architectural diversity distance metric, ensuring a broad set of robust candidate models. We also propose a node distribution heatmap and a structural entropy index to assess architectural diversity without ground-truth Pareto sets. Extensive experiments on 40 forecasting cases demonstrate that M3NAS-TSF outperforms six representative baselines, achieving superior forecasting accuracy (the maximum reduction in the RMSE reached 14.50%) with a smaller model size while maintaining greater architectural diversity for failure resilience.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Advanced Multi-Objective Optimization Algorithms Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Publication details

Journal / source
IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation
Volume
30
Issue
4
Pages
1480–1494
Publication date
28 January 2026