Analyzing the Impact of Service Stages on Demand and Modal Shift for Urban Air Mobility: A Case Study of Seoul Metropolitan Area

Upon the introduction of urban air mobility (UAM) services as a new transportation mode, a substantial portion of the UAM service demand is expected to be generated by passengers shifting from conventional transportation modes. However, previous studies have focused on the primary mode of transportation that shifts to UAM in specific service stages, overlooking the potential variations in mode choice as the service stages mature. Additionally, existing researches have predominantly examined the aggregate demand across all flight routes, making it challenging to identify the distinctive characteristics of each route with high demand. This study aims to bridge this gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of mode choice tendencies and demand characteristics for UAM services throughout the entire service stages. To determine the mode choice of passengers, a demand forecasting model is established and the mode choice criterion named “income threshold” is used. Finally, based on this model, a case study of Seoul metropolitan area is conducted. The results indicate that as UAM services mature, targeting the demand shift from private vehicle users has more potential to generate high demand than targeting public transport or taxi users. Furthermore, the findings indicate that routes with high demand during a specific service stage do not consistently follow high demand throughout the entire service stage. Last but not least, the optimal order of vertiport deployment for maximizing cumulative revenue within operating flight routes was scrutinized; it was discovered that only 9 out of 24 flight routes account for 80% of the total revenue. The finding of this study has great potential for policy- and decision-makers in seamlessly applying the results to other areas with similar characteristics to Seoul metropolitan area and can provide valuable insights into UAM services demand trends.