PDF-Reshape: Adversarial Attack on Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting
Abstract
Probabilistic wind power forecasting (PWPF) is a critical tool to manage the inherent uncertainty of wind power generation, providing probability predictions essential for economic dispatch and stability assessment. However, the increasing threat of cyberattacks necessitates a comprehensive investigation of the vulnerabilities of PWPFs. This letter introduces a novel adversarial attack framework, termed PDF-Reshape Attack, which targets to manipulate the statistical measures of the probability density functions (PDFs) while maintaining stealthiness by minimizing changes to the expectations. We evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed attack on mainstream PDF distributions (e.g., Gaussian, Beta, Gamma, Weibull) and assess its economic impact on downstream economic dispatch.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
Optimal Power Flow Distribution
Smart Grid Security and Resilience
Publication details
- Journal / source
- IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid
- Publisher
- Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
- Volume
- 17
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 2622–2625
- Publication date
- 3 February 2026
- Language
- EN