Adapting to an Uncertain Future: Water Quality Management in Chesapeake Bay

ABSTRACT The Chesapeake Bay has been at the forefront of large‐scale efforts to reverse human‐induced eutrophication in coastal waters. While significant progress has been made, 15 years of intensive implementation efforts reveal that outcomes in many areas have fallen short of water quality goals. Future program goals and implementation plans will increasingly be challenged by uncertainties and limits in the effectiveness of nonpoint source programs and in the estuaries' response to changing pollutant inputs and environmental conditions. This paper argues that policy changes are needed to adapt to these management realities. We outline three policy alternatives—tiered implementation of an existing Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), changes in the accounting and modeling of nonpoint sources, and policy sandboxing—that together offer practical pathways to accelerate learning and improve outcomes of implementation programs.