The Unintended Consequences of German Deterrence

ABSTRACT Germany's evolving deterrence posture boils down to continued participation in NATO nuclear sharing and an ambitious conventional rearmament program. Due to its non‐nuclear status and a result of decades of underinvestment, Germany prioritizes modern conventional weapons. A significant portion of Berlin's acquisition plans is earmarked for deterrence commitments along the Eastern Flank and for so‐called “deep precision strike” capabilities. The theory behind these plans appears less clear. A closer examination of capabilities and official statements suggests that Germany's evolving deterrence posture could produce unintended consequences that have not yet been fully acknowledged in policy circles. To strengthen deterrence, stability, and non‐proliferation, ideally, a novel arms control approach for Europe would complement German rearmament. Prospects for such an approach are nevertheless dim.