Superstition and Corporate Supply Chain Risk: Evidence From ‘Zodiac Year’ Beliefs in China

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the effect of chairman superstition on Chinese corporate supply chain risk. Using a sample of Chinese A‐share companies from 2008 to 2023, we find robust evidence that chairman superstition, measured by the chairman's zodiac year, significantly reduces corporate supply chain risk. This negative relationship remains robust to a range of endogeneity tests and robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect is more pronounced in non‐state‐owned enterprises, in firms operating in highly competitive industries, when the chairman holds greater decision‐making power, and when the chairman has lower educational attainment. Mechanism analysis suggests that operational conservatism is one channel through which chairman superstition reduces supply chain risk. Specifically, chairmen in their zodiac year strengthen firms' working capital position and accumulate larger cash reserves as precautionary buffers, both of which significantly mediate the relationship between superstition and supply chain risk. Overall, these results shed light on the real effects of superstition and the determinants of corporate supply chain risk.