Social media use, smoking expectancies, and nicotine experimentation in early adolescents: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Social media exposure may influence early nicotine experimentation, a behavior linked to later nicotine dependence and health risks. Few studies have examined the role of smoking expectancies (i.e., beliefs about the anticipated positive or negative effects of nicotine) as a pathway underlying this association, especially in early adolescence. The objective of this study is to examine the prospective association between social media use and nicotine experimentation in early adolescence, and whether smoking expectancies mediate this relationship. METHODS: Using longitudinal data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study (N = 8292; mean age 12.0 years at Year 2; 2018-2020), we estimated associations between social media time (Year 2) and nicotine experimentation (Year 4), adjusting for confounders and testing positive and negative smoking expectancies (Year 3) as mediators using generalized structural equation modeling. RESULTS: Social media time at Year 2 was associated with nicotine experimentation at Year 4. Positive smoking expectancies (but not negative expectancies) were associated with nicotine experimentation. Positive smoking expectancies mediated 5.97% (95% CI: 1.27%-10.67%, p = .013) of the social media-nicotine experimentation association. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Early social media exposure may be associated with favorable beliefs about nicotine, increasing adolescents' risk of experimentation. Regulatory policies, clinical screening, and prevention programs could mitigate early nicotine use. Future research should explore how these relationships evolve across adolescence. SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: This study advances understanding of how social media use contributes to early nicotine experimentation in adolescents by identifying positive smoking expectancies as a potential pathway.