Political Extinction Risk Under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

ABSTRACT Conservation science has substantial capacity to analyze a range of risks to species. We identify an additional form of risk for biodiversity: The risk that legal protections may be scaled back or repealed as a result of political changes. We demonstrate the importance of “political extinction risk” through an analysis of the implications of a partial repeal of the federal Endangered Species Act, removing protections for species on private lands. Such a repeal reduces protections for all species from hunting by over one‐third, and from habitat modification by over 40%. Loss of protections vary significantly by species, across states, and by taxonomic group. In particular, more charismatic taxonomic groups generally have higher levels of protection relative to less charismatic groups. Our results highlight the importance of political risks for conservation.