Designing Effective Provincial Environmental Policies for a Fair Low‐carbon Transition in the Cement Industry

Abstract Designing policies for the cement industry's low‐carbon transition is challenging due to provincial differences. This study combined a multiregional computable general equilibrium model with the energy–economy–environment–sustainability–strategy–stability (3E3S) method to assess the effects of policy scenarios involving carbon taxes and emissions trading schemes on provincial economies, the environment, carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, urban–rural income gap, the construction industry, and 3E3S subsystems. The results show that both the impacts of carbon tax and emissions trading schemes on provincial GDP are negative. As tax rates rise, carbon intensity in the cement industry decreases, boosting CCS technology adoption, especially in provinces where cement production is concentrated. These policies also intensify the urban–rural income gap, although tax rebates can partially offset their negative effects, and influence the construction industry through the supply chain. Variations in economic levels, technological development, and urban–rural income gap among provinces significantly influence the coordinated development of the 3E3S subsystems.