Burden of type 2 diabetes in Asia‐Pacific regions, 1990–2021: GBD 2021 analysis with forecast to 2050

AIMS: Asia faces a rising diabetes burden, with significant subregional variations. This study analyses trends from 1990 to 2021 and projects future burdens to guide targeted interventions. METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we assessed type 2 diabetes cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates across 35 Asian countries/regions. Decomposition analysis identified burden drivers, and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model predicted trends. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, Asia witnessed a substantial increase in the burden of type 2 diabetes, with Central Asia having the fastest-growing age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) at estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 2.82. South Asia faced the heaviest burden, with 410,254 diabetes-related deaths and 16,851,968 DALYs in 2021. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was highest in Southeast Asia at 27.84 per 100,000. Key drivers included population growth, ageing and epidemiological changes, particularly in South Asia, with projections indicating continued increases in diabetes burden in South and Central Asia. CONCLUSION: Asia's diabetes burden has continued to increase, driven by population growth, ageing and epidemiological shifts. Targeted prevention, healthcare access and ageing policies are critical, especially in high-burden regions like South and Central Asia.