Undemocratic Elections Under Democracy

ABSTRACT This study uses a game‐theoretic model to analyze the conditions for a “truly democratic election” in a democratic system in which the citizens choose between two candidates: the incumbent (ruling party) and the opposition party. This study yields the following three major findings. First, when the military's coup cost is low, an opposition candidate cannot be a “feasible true alternative” for the citizens. Second, if the cost of a military coup is high and the political preferences of the ruling and opposition parties are relatively close, the opposition becomes a viable real alternative, and a democratic system is realized. Third, if the policy preferences of citizens and the ruling party are sufficiently close to those of the opposition, the ruling party will have a greater need to appeal to populism to be reelected.