Spatiotemporal Analysis of Firewood‐Related GHG Emissions in Brazil Using Moran's I and LISA : Insights for Regional Energy Planning

ABSTRACT The impacts of the uncontrolled use of forest resources extend beyond the local level, playing a crucial role globally. This article analyzed the distribution and spatial dependence of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil's intermediate regions during the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s. Emissions were calculated using average emission factors for firewood from plant extraction (1 m 3 = 16 kg CO 2 ‐eq) and silviculture (1 m 3 = 10 kg CO 2 ‐eq) and exploratory spatial data analysis techniques, including Global Moran's I and LISA. An exploratory analysis of spatial data was conducted, utilizing spatial weighting matrices of k‐nearest neighbors and queen contiguity. The results of the conjuncture analysis revealed a reduction in total emissions in Brazil's regions between 1990 and 2010, except in the South, where emissions increased by 4.36%. GHG emissions from extractive firewood fell by 29.74% per annum (1990–2010), while those from silviculture showed a 22.70% per annum increase (1990–2010). The clusters of high emissions from extractive activities were mainly located in the Northeast, particularly in the states of Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, and Bahia. Emissions from silviculture were concentrated in the South and Southeast regions of the country. It is important to highlight that the estimates are based on fixed combustion emission factors and the assumption of local firewood consumption, and may be influenced by spatial aggregation effects. The conclusions indicate that, when considering all firewood used regionally, emissions from plant extractivism predominated in the Northeast, while silviculture predominated in the South and Southeast, contributing the most to GHG emissions in these locations.