Ensembling Crop Models and Multi Criteria Analysis to Unlock Bioenergy From Marginal Lands: A Scenario‐Based Assessment From Italy

ABSTRACT Biofuels can play a crucial role in decarbonising transport by providing low‐carbon solutions for hard‐to‐abate sectors. Second‐generation feedstocks, cultivated on marginal lands, offer the potential to reduce the drawbacks associated with biofuels derived from food crops such as competition with food production. A Multi‐Criteria Analysis (MCA) coupled with a two‐model ensemble (DSSAT‐CROPGRO and ARMOSA) was used to quantify the gross bioenergy potential of the oil fraction of three underutilized crops: Carthamus tinctorius (Safflower), Ricinus communis (Castor bean), and Brassica carinata (Ethiopian mustard) on the identified Italian marginal lands. The MCA classified up to 38% of Italian agricultural land as marginal land. Both models performed well on calibration and evaluation datasets on phenology and yield with RRMSE values that varied from 2% to 28%. Long‐term simulations were used to map spatial patterns of productivity and to screen areas based on economic viability and interannual stability under contrasting management options. Depending on management and stability requirements, 1.0–2.41 Mha were suitable for bioenergy crops, corresponding to 16–50 PJ of gross feedstock energy. This represents a significant contribution to current Italian biofuel consumption, especially considering that Italy is a net importer of feedstocks for biofuel production. On a gross energy‐equivalent basis, these values correspond to 17%–52% of the current energy demand of aviation and shipping in Italy, although the actual contribution as final biofuel would be lower once downstream conversion and logistics losses are considered. Climate and soil variability strongly influence crop productivity, with a gradient observed from northern to southern Italy. Although biofuels cannot fully replace fossil fuels in transport, they can still play a pivotal role in hard‐to‐abate sectors, where alternatives remain limited.