Meeting basic needs first: The influence of China's New Rural Pension Scheme on rural household consumption structure

Abstract Population aging poses profound challenges to household welfare, particularly in rural areas. However, the impact of pension policies on the consumption structure of rural households remains underexplored. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this study examines the effects of China's New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) on household consumption structure. The results indicate that the NRPS significantly raises the share of subsistence consumption in total expenditure, particularly among low‐income households, while having no significant impact on middle‐ or high‐income households. These findings align with Maslow's hierarchy of needs, suggesting that pension benefits mainly help meet basic needs rather than stimulate higher‐level consumption. By revealing this heterogeneity, this study contributes causal evidence on how pensions reshape consumption structures and offers policy implications for enhancing household welfare in rural China.