The Biogeography of ENSO ‐Induced Climate Variability, Deforestation Trends and Fire‐Induced Forest Loss in the Neotropics

ABSTRACT Aim To identify Neotropical ecoregions experiencing compound environmental exposure to El Niño/La Niña‐driven climate variability, deforestation trends and fire‐induced forest loss. Location Neotropical realm. Methods We quantified historical exposure to ENSO‐related climate variability by correlating the Oceanic Niño Index with four terrestrial climate variables (minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation and Palmer drought severity index) for the period 1961–2021. Pixel‐level correlations were aggregated into El Niño and La Niña exposure indices using entropy‐weighting. Forest disturbance was characterized using cumulative forest loss, mean annual loss rate and fire‐induced canopy loss derived from global remote‐sensing datasets (2001–2023). Principal component analysis and K ‐means were used to classify ecoregions based on multi‐variate exposure profiles. Results Four clusters were identified across 150 forested ecoregions. ENSO‐related climate exposure dominated regions from Central America to northern South America (27.3% of ecoregions), while deforestation (10.7%) and fire‐induced forest loss (8.0%) characterized ecoregions primarily in the Amazon Basin and the Caribbean. Seven ecoregions, mainly in Colombia and Venezuela, exhibited consistently high exposure across climate variability, deforestation and fire‐related disturbance: lowland moist forests (Catatumbo and Magdalena‐Urabá), montane forests (Cordillera Oriental and Magdalena Valley) and dry forests (Apure‐Villavicencio, Maracaibo and Patía). Main Conclusion Our results highlighted clear patterns of compound exposure, identifying ecoregions where climatic variability may interact with ongoing land‐use pressures. While exposure does not equate to ecological vulnerability, these findings provide a biogeographical foundation for prioritizing regions where sensitivity and adaptive capacity assessments are most urgently needed.