Fertility Dynamics across High‐Income Countries in a New Era of Polycrisis

Abstract The COVID‐19 pandemic opened a polycrisis of interrelated disruptions and compounding economic and subjective uncertainty that likely shaped fertility in high‐income countries, especially in its second phase, in which the Ukraine war was a major source and amplifier of uncertainty. Yet fertility evidence remains largely limited to the pandemic. We estimate monthly “excess” total fertility rates (TFRs) and find that declines compared to projected pre‐polycrisis trends were short‐lived during the first phase and excess TFRs overall positive in all 26 sample countries except Eastern Europe and Portugal. Instead, during the second phase, excess TFRs are strongly and increasingly negative in Eastern and Central Europe, Greece, Portugal, France, Denmark, and Sweden. Investigating potential explanatory variables, we find that the total, energy, and housing consumer price indices and reversed consumer confidence are negatively associated with excess TFRs, especially in Eastern and Central Europe, Greece, France, Denmark, and Sweden. Refugee inflows, the economic policy uncertainty index, and the geopolitical risk index show weaker negative associations. But country heterogeneity is large. Our analysis suggests that fertility dynamics are closely linked to the polycrisis, citizens’ economic conditions and confidence are the strongest correlates, and extensive welfare regimes alone may not consistently sustain fertility under accumulating uncertainty.