Global Production Automation and China's Export Adjustment—Theoretical and Empirical Evidence

ABSTRACT This article utilises customs data from 2010 to 2016 to measure export values at the ‘city‐industry’ level, focusing on the impact of industrial robot adoption in developed market‐oriented countries on China's export performance. A theoretical model is constructed to explore how the use of industrial robots abroad affects China's exports. Additionally, a penetration index of foreign industrial robot usage and an instrumental variable are developed. The main findings are as follows: First, the use of robots in developed market‐oriented countries has a negative impact on China's exports, while the impact of robot adoption in competitive countries with similar endowments to China is not significant. Second, the negative effects from robot usage in developed countries are intensified in industries with a high cross‐industry input ratio, low international trade costs, and a high degree of robotisation. Third, robot adoption in developed countries also poses certain obstacles to China's efforts in exploring new export markets. This article has significant implications for formulating policies aimed at ‘stabilizing foreign trade’ and provides insights into the new dynamics of global industrial chain restructuring.