Supply Chain Tectonics: Empirics on How the EU Is Plotting Its Path Through Global Trade Fragmentation

ABSTRACT This paper examines indications of shifts in the European Union's (EU) import relationships in an increasingly fragmented global trade environment. Using highly disaggregated product‐level trade data, we provide an initial exploration of the reallocation of EU import flows over the 2021–2024 period, considering what these emerging patterns may imply for diversification and price developments. The timing of this analysis is relevant given rising geopolitical uncertainties and the parallel rollout of EU initiatives aimed at enhancing internal capacities and mitigating risks in critical supply chains. Our findings indicate that the EU's supply chains show initial signs of adaptability within the evolving global landscape. Despite sectoral differences, our analysis points to a recent overall shift in EU imports away from countries lacking bilateral trade initiatives with the EU towards the EU itself, as well as neighbouring and distant partners engaged in such initiatives. We find indications that this development is associated with higher overall diversification in EU imports across all partners. However, the reallocation seems more focused on a subset of agreement partners, which may partly reflect the gradual adjustment needed to build capacity elsewhere. In addition, we find mixed evidence of short‐term upward pressure on prices. All in all, the paper aims to highlight emerging trends in EU imports and the related challenges of balancing efficiency and resilience.