Modeling recovery-enhanced propagation of expressway disruptions in the greater bay area: a network-based SIR framework

This study proposes a recovery-aware SIR modeling framework to simulate the coupled dynamics of disruption propagation and infrastructure restoration in expressway systems. Using a directed network constructed from critical nodes in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the model incorporates both the forward spread of impacts and the recovery of node functionality. Recovery processes are governed by one of three strategies: uniform allocation, centrality-based prioritization, and distance-aware deployment. Scenario-based simulations reveal that recovery strategy design plays a decisive role in controlling propagation extent and recovery speed. In particular, distance-aware recovery achieves early containment by aligning restoration priorities with spatial accessibility, while centrality-based strategies enhance control over structurally influential nodes. The findings offer actionable insights for resilient expressway planning and emergency response design in megaregions.