A method for analyzing the influence of large-scale emergencies on highway traffic

A traffic assessment model based on attenuation factors is proposed for the monitoring of road network operation during widespread emergencies, based on historical traffic flow data, using time series models to predict the traffic flow not affected by said emergencies, and comparing the affected traffic flow data under the same spatiotemporal scale. Guangdong Province's expressway was taken as the research object for verification. The experiment has proven that the model has good performance which can provide support for the traffic prediction for highway management departments during wide-spread emergency situations and support them in making optimal scientific decisions in highway traffic management.