Spatiotemporal variations and multiscenario prediction of ecological resilience in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China

The quantitative assessment of ecological resilience (ER) is crucial for maintaining ecosystem stability and biodiversity in the face of climate change and environmental pressures. This study integrates ER measurements with the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics and scenario-based projections of ER in the Yangtze River Delta Region (YRD) from 2000 to 2030. The results indicate a slight decline in the average ER, from 0.337 in 2000 to 0.332 in 2020, both of which remain at a fair level. Spatially, ER exhibits a pattern of “low in the north, high in the south”, with high–high clusters in the south and low–low clusters in the north. By 2030, the business-as-usual (BAU) and production-living-ecological space (PLES) scenarios show minimal differences in the average ER but substantial differences in the distribution of resilience. The ecological space priority (ESP) scenario accounts for the largest proportion of moderate ER areas, while the living space priority (LSP) scenario accounts for the smallest. Conversely, the production space priority (PSP) scenario generates the highest proportion of good ER areas, while ESP generates the lowest. These findings offer crucial guidance for ecological restoration and the identification of regional development priorities.