International transport risk analysis of China–Europe railway express based on FTA-BN model

Conducting an international transportation risk assessment for the China-Europe Railway Express is of great significance for ensuring the safety and smoothness of international trade channels. To deeply study the influencing factors of the transportation risks of the China-Europe Railway Express, an analysis method combining Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Bayesian Network (BN) is proposed. The causes of transportation risks are analyzed from three aspects: risks related to the goods themselves, risks related to the train and equipment, and macro risks. Based on the qualitative analysis of existing research and expert questionnaires, the logical relationship of risk factors is represented by a fault tree model, which is then mapped to a Bayesian network model. Parameter learning is conducted using the Netica software, and the key causes of transportation risks for the China-Europe Railway Express are determined through posterior probability reasoning and sensitivity analysis. Corresponding risk control measures are formulated. The results show that environmental factors (X15-X17) and operational factors (X6, X9) have the most significant impact on transportation risks. The research results of this paper can provide decision-making basis for the risk classification control and emergency plan formulation of the China-Europe Railway Express.