Statistical study on the carbon emission driving mechanisms in 30 Chinese provinces: an analysis based on the Malmquist-LMDI-STIRPAT model

This study centers on China's “Dual Carbon” goals and constructs an integrated carbon emission measurement system combining Malmquist-LNDI-STIRPAT to analyze the carbon emission characteristics of 30 provinces nationwide from 2008 to 2023. The findings reveal that: first, technological progress serves as the core driver for improving carbon emission performance, though regional disparities in technical efficiency are significant, with the eastern region outperforming the central and western regions; second, economic development is the primary factor driving per capita carbon emission growth, while energy structure optimization and reduced energy intensity effectively mitigate emission growth rates, with notable regional variations; third, multi-scenario projections indicate that policy interventions yield significant effects, with the low-carbon scenario potentially advancing the carbon peak to 2025 and reducing the peak volume by 5.9% to 8.4%. The study provides a scientific basis for formulating differentiated emission reduction policies and recommends strengthening regional collaboration, optimizing industrial structure, and refining policy tools to achieve synergistic development of the economy and the environment.