Why Is Exponential Growth of Technology So Common?

Chapter 28 explores why exponential growth in technology is so common, identifying several key drivers. Competition among companies and nations accelerates innovation, as seen in GPUs, gene sequencing, and large-scale projects like telescopes and particle accelerators. Cooperation also plays a role, with industry roadmaps such as the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors setting aggressive goals that push progress. Wright’s law, introduced in 1936, explains cost reductions through “learning by doing,” where each doubling of cumulative production lowers unit cost—a power law rather than exponential, but influential in technologies like solar panels. Moore’s law impacts many fields by enabling high-speed electronics, compounding improvements, and adaptive systems. Incremental annual gains, when compounded, produce exponential growth, similar to compound interest. Feedback loops further amplify progress, as each achievement creates pressure for the next, sustaining exponential trends. These combined factors explain why technological advancement often accelerates dramatically over time.