Rowing at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games: 1500-m Versus 2000-m Performance and the Predictive Accuracy of a Critical Speed Model

PURPOSE: In preparation for the reduced 1500-m-rowing racing distance at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games, we compared performance between maximal 2000-m (TT2000) and 1500-m (TT1500) ergometer time trials and evaluated the predictive accuracy of a linear critical speed (CS) model in elite rowers. METHODS: Thirty-four elite under-23 rowers (12 female, 22 male) completed TT2000, TT1500, and 500-m (TT500) maximal ergometer time trials on separate days. Performance differences between TT2000 and TT1500 were assessed using linear mixed modeling. Completion times from TT2000 and TT500 were used in a CS model to predict TT1500 time. RESULTS: Compared with TT2000, mean power output was 4.8% higher in males and 4.4% higher in females during TT1500, with a 26% reduction in completion time across both groups. The CS model using TT500 and TT2000 accurately predicted TT1500 time for both sexes, with a mean absolute error of