Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts

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Authors: Rebecca C. Scholten, Tirtha Banerjee, Yang Chen, Andrea Delgado, Ajinkya Desai, Ziming Ke, Tianjia Liu, Douglas C. Morton, David A. Peterson, Qi Tang, Sander Veraverbeke, Jishi Zhang
+1 more James T. Randerson
Cited by: 3
References: 56

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying fire behavior, with the largest and fastest-spreading fires causing the greatest impacts on people and ecosystems. Yet the mechanisms driving variability and trends in large fires remain poorly understood. Using 12-hour satellite-derived fire tracking data from 2012 to 2023, we show that the merging of separate ignitions into multi-ignition complexes is a key process amplifying fire size and destructive potential across temperate and boreal ecoregions. Multi-ignition fires account for 31% of the burned area in California and 59% in the Arctic-boreal domain, spread faster and persist longer than single-ignition fires, and disproportionately contribute to extreme fire years in California, Canada, and Siberia. They also generate stronger atmospheric feedbacks, produce more pyrocumulonimbus events, and strain firefighting capacity by dispersing suppression resources. Recognizing and accounting for fire-merging dynamics are critical for improving wildfire prediction, risk assessment, and management.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Fire effects on ecosystems Knowledge Management and Technology Fire Detection and Safety Systems

Publication details

Journal / source
Science Advances
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Volume
12
Issue
1
Pages
eadx6477–eadx6477
Publication date
2 January 2026
Language
EN