The emerging human fingerprint on global extreme fire weather

Science Advances 2026 Open access

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Authors: Marco Turco, Alberto Moreno, Ginés Garnés-Morales, Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Joaquín Bedia, Sixto Herrera, Antonello Provenzale, John T. Abatzoglou
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adx9845
Cited by: 5
References: 61

Abstract

Extreme fire weather (hot, dry, and windy conditions) has intensified globally, yet formally attributing this trend to anthropogenic climate change remains challenging. Here, we analyze global trends in extreme fire weather days (FWI95d, annual count of days with Fire Weather Index above the 95th percentile) over 1980-2023, using climate model ensembles, observational data, and fingerprint detection techniques. We find that the observed increase in extreme fire weather bears a clear externally forced signal, detectable at 99% confidence above natural variability and attributable to human-induced climate change. This emerging human-induced fingerprint on extreme fire weather highlights a benchmark for climate science and underscores the urgency of integrating these insights into wildfire risk management and adaptation strategies.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Fire effects on ecosystems Fire Detection and Safety Systems Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols

Publication details

Journal / source
Science Advances
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Volume
12
Issue
11
Pages
eadx9845–eadx9845
Publication date
11 March 2026
Language
EN