Why methane surged in the atmosphere during the early 2020s

Science 2026

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Authors: P. Ciais, Yu Zhu, Y. Cai, Xin Lan, S. E. Michel, B. Zheng, Y. Zhao, D. A. Hauglustaine, X. Lin, Y. Zhang, S. Sun, X. Tian
+30 more M. Zhao, Y. Wang, J. Chang, X. Dou, Z. Liu, Robbie M. Andrew, C. A. Quinn, B. Poulter, Zutao Ouyang, W. Yuan, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Q. Zhu, F. Li, N. Pan, H. Tian, X. Yu, Gerard Rocher‐Ros, M. S. Johnson, Mengze Li, Minhui Li, Dongmei Feng, P. Raymond, Xiao Yang, J. G. Canadell, R. B. Jackson, Xueying Yu, Y. Li, M. Saunois, P. Bousquet, S. Peng
DOI: 10.1126/science.adx8262
Cited by: 19
References: 116

Abstract

The atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) growth rate surged after 2019, peaking at 16.2 parts per billion per year (ppb year −1 ) in 2020 before declining to 8.6 ppb year −1 in 2023. Using multiple atmospheric inversions constrained by observation- and model-based prescribed hydroxyl radical (OH) fields and CH 4 atmospheric data, we show that a drop of OH radicals in 2020–2021, followed by recovery in 2022–2023, accounted for 83% of year-on-year variations in the CH 4 growth rate, the rest being explained by wetland and inland water emissions, which increased between 2019 and 2020–2022 [+8.6 ± 2.6 teragrams of CH 4 per year (TgCH 4 year −1 )] and then decreased between 2022 and 2023 (−9.9 ± 3.3 TgCH 4 year −1 ). Most emission changes from 2019 to 2023 occurred in northern tropical wetlands in Africa and Asia, whereas South American wetlands emissions declined and Arctic emissions increased after 2019.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics Atmospheric Ozone and Climate Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols

Publication details

Journal / source
Science
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Volume
391
Issue
6785
Pages
eadx8262–eadx8262
Publication date
5 February 2026
Language
EN