Theory and Practice of Gas Consumption Forecasting in Planning the Development of Regional Gas Supply Systems

Abstract— Gas consumption forecasting is essential for decision-making regarding the operation and development of the gas industry, a key sector within the nation’s fuel and energy complex. This article focuses specifically on medium-term consumption forecasts for a region—a federal subject of the Russian Federation. Such forecasts are required for developing and adjusting regional gas supply schemes. A forecast must account for the sequence of prior decisions and their actual implementation, as well as requests from potential consumers for natural gas service connection. The primary recommended methodology for medium-term forecasting is based on factor analysis approaches. The article presents forecasting results for nine Russian regions. These case studies convincingly demonstrate the advisability of segmenting regional consumption into three to four sectors; incorporating three climatic factors, rather than one, into models; and reducing the number of a priori selected socio-economic factors based on the analysis results.