Artificial intelligence based multimodal fusion of electronic medical record data and ECG signals for pericarditis prediction: pericarditis calculator (p-Cal) as a screening aid

BACKGROUND: Pericarditis may be associated with significant morbidity and mortality and can be a clinically challenging entity to diagnose. There is a clinical need for automated artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to act as a screening aid to assist with the early and accurate detection of pericarditis. METHODS: We developed p-Cal, a browser-based pericarditis risk calculator that fuses the patient clinical data and 12-lead ECG image to estimate risk for pericarditis. The ECG encoder was designed based on a pretrained MedCLIP Vision Transformer and random forest classifier was used for the clinical tabular data. These two modalities were fused at the decision-level using a meta classifier. Model reasoning for both modalities was assessed using advanced explainable AI techniques-attention maps from the transformer model were used to interpret ECG images, while SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) force plots were applied to analyse the tabular data. RESULTS: A total of 6508 patients (mean age 54.8±16.1 years, 50.9% female) were used for training and internal validation of the AI model, of whom 902 patients had a confirmed diagnosis of pericarditis (13.8%) and the remainder were normal controls. On 1302 hold-out test patients, the Fusion Model demonstrated the best discriminatory performance, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89, which surpassed the ECG (AUC = 0.85) and the clinical data only models (AUC = 0.74) performance. On external validation in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) Database, the fusion model achieved an AUC of 0.81. CONCLUSION: A late fusion AI model integrating tabular clinical electronic medical record data and ECG signal has robust predictive capability for pericarditis as a screening tool.